Senate
Balance of the chamber could come down to four states where Democrats are up for reelection
The days of an evenly split Senate may be no more after the midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans each striving to pick up just one more seat to break the tie.
The Senate map suggests that 2022 could be a tough year for Republicans. They must defend 21 of the 35 seats up this November. Two of those races are in states President Donald Trump lost in 2020: Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson is vulnerable to a Democratic challenge, and Pennsylvania, where the retirement of Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R) leaves a wide-open race. Democrats, meanwhile, only have 14 incumbents to defend, all in states that President Biden won.
But concerns about inflation and Biden’s dwindling job approval ratings have buoyed Republicans into believing they can win in some states that otherwise would lean the Democrats’ way. And for that reason, there is unanimous agreement from strategists in both parties that the balance of the Senate could be determined in four states where Democratic incumbents are up for reelection: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.
2022 Senate map
Democratic-held
Not up for election
Republican-held
NH
WA
VT
ME
MT
ND
MN
OR
ID
SD
NY
WI
MI
WY
PA
IA
NE
OH
NV
IL
IN
UT
MA
WV
CO
CA
KS
MO
KY
RI
NC
TN
CT
OK
AZ
NM
SC
AR
NJ
GA
AL
MS
TX
DE
LA
AK
MD
FL
HI
Two seats up
for election
VA
36 Dems. not up
14
21
29 Reps. not up
Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.
Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
THE WASHINGTON POST
2022 Senate map
Democratic-held
Not up for election
Republican-held
N.H.
Wash.
Vt.
Maine
Mont.
Minn.
N.D.
Ore.
Wis.
Idaho
S.D.
N.Y.
Mich.
Wyo.
Pa.
Iowa
Neb.
Nev.
Ohio
Ill.
Utah
Mass.
Ind.
Colo.
W.Va.
Calif.
Kan.
Mo.
R.I.
Ky.
N.C.
Conn.
Tenn.
Okla.
Ariz.
S.C.
N.M.
N.J.
Ark.
Ala.
Ga.
Del.
Texas
Md.
La.
Va.
Fla.
Miss.
Alaska
Hawaii
Two seats up
for election
50
36 Dems. not up
14
21
29 Reps. not up
Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.
Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
THE WASHINGTON POST
2022 Senate map
Democratic-held
Republican-held
Not up for election
N.H.
Wash.
Vt.
Maine
Mont.
N.D.
Minn.
Ore.
Idaho
N.Y.
Wis.
S.D.
Mich.
Wyo.
Pa.
Iowa
Mass.
Neb.
Nev.
Ohio
R.I.
Ind.
Ill.
Utah
Conn.
Colo.
W.Va.
Calif.
Va.
N.J.
Kan.
Mo.
Ky.
Del.
N.C.
Md.
Tenn.
Ariz.
Okla.
Ark.
S.C.
N.M.
Ala.
Ga.
Miss.
Tex.
La.
Fla.
Alaska
Two seats up
for election
Hawaii
50
36 Dems. not up for election
14
21
29 Reps. not up for election
Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.
Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
THE WASHINGTON POST
An especially competitive race is shaping up in Georgia, where Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) will face former University of Georgia and National Football League running back Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee. Warnock never truly stopped campaigning after surprisingly winning in a runoff election in January 2021, fundraising aggressively to build a staggering $25.6 million cash on hand by the end of March. Walker has high name recognition but is untested as a candidate and faces allegations of domestic abuse. Polls show the two men tied in hypothetical matchups.
Arizona is in the spotlight once again as Sen. Mark Kelly (D) hopes to win his first full term in the Senate. Kelly has relatively high job approval and has built his own campaign operation that many credit for helping Biden carry the state in 2020. But the race remains competitive, even after Republicans failed to recruit relatively popular Gov. Doug Ducey to run. With voters giving Democrats low marks on the economy and immigration, two defining issues for Arizonans, whomever Republicans nominate from a deep field of hopefuls is sure to pose a strong challenge to Kelly.
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Republicans saw Sununu, a moderate who is popular with the state’s voters, as the ideal candidate to flip the seat. Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 — and in a year that so far is trending in Republicans’ favor, she will be vulnerable November.
Of the four competitive races with Democratic incumbents, Republicans are the most bullish about Nevada. The GOP has been hammering Democrats for prolonging coronavirus restrictions that hurt Las Vegas’s tourism-based economy. Nevada also has a growing number of Latino and Asian voters, two groups that have shown more openness toward Republican candidates than other minority groups.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has more money on hand than her likely Republican opponent, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who benefits from Trump’s endorsement. To gain Trump’s backing, Laxalt has repeated the former president’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged and campaigns on fighting election fraud, which could turn off more moderate voters.
The most vulnerable Republican incumbent is Johnson, whose job approval ratings are lower than Biden’s. Democrats express considerable confidence that they could unseat Johnson and charge that he has prioritized Trump over his own constituents. However, Johnson has proved that he can prevail in tough races, winning reelection in 2016 by nearly 100,000 votes after some had counted him out.
In Pennsylvania, a state that has quickly become a battleground over the years, Toomey’s retirement has created an open race. Democrats are banking on a Trump-aligned Republican nominee to turn off independent voters in the state. Trump endorsed television host Mehmet Oz over former hedge manager David McCormick in the Republican primary. The two candidates spent millions and sought to win over Trump’s voters. The hard-fought May 17 primary was too close to call, with Oz holding onto a razor-thin lead as thousands of mail-in ballots were still to be counted. Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who has a strong following with working-class voters.
Understanding the 2022 Midterm Elections
November’s midterm elections are likely to shift the political landscape and impact what President Biden can accomplish during the remainder of his first term. Here’s what to know.
When are the midterm elections? The general election is Nov. 8, but the primary season is already underway. Here’s a complete calendar of all the primaries in 2022. Up next: Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas primaries and a runoff in Texas on May 24.
Why are the midterms important? The midterm elections determine control of Congress: The party that has the House or Senate majority gets to organize the chamber and decide what legislation Congress considers. Thirty six governors and thousands of state legislators are also on the ballot. Here’s a complete guide to the midterms.
Which seats are up for election? Every seat in the House and a third of the seats in the 100-member Senate are up for election. Dozens of House members have already announced they will be retiring from Congress instead of seeking reelection.
What is redistricting? Redistricting is the process of drawing congressional and state legislative maps to ensure everyone’s vote counts equally. As of April 25, 46 of the 50 states had settled on the boundaries for 395 of 435 U.S. House districts.
Which primaries are the most competitive? Here are the most interesting Democratic primaries and Republican primaries to watch as Republicans and Democrats try to nominate their most electable candidates.
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