Senate

Balance of the chamber could come down to four states where Democrats are up for reelection

(Lucy Naland/Washington Post illustration; Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post; iStock)

The days of an evenly split Senate may be no more after the midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans each striving to pick up just one more seat to break the tie.

The Senate map suggests that 2022 could be a tough year for Republicans. They must defend 21 of the 35 seats up this November. Two of those races are in states President Donald Trump lost in 2020: Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson is vulnerable to a Democratic challenge, and Pennsylvania, where the retirement of Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R) leaves a wide-open race. Democrats, meanwhile, only have 14 incumbents to defend, all in states that President Biden won.

But concerns about inflation and Biden’s dwindling job approval ratings have buoyed Republicans into believing they can win in some states that otherwise would lean the Democrats’ way. And for that reason, there is unanimous agreement from strategists in both parties that the balance of the Senate could be determined in four states where Democratic incumbents are up for reelection: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.

2022 Senate map

Democratic-held

Not up for election

Republican-held

NH

WA

VT

ME

MT

ND

MN

OR

ID

SD

NY

WI

MI

WY

PA

IA

NE

OH

NV

IL

IN

UT

MA

WV

CO

CA

KS

MO

KY

RI

NC

TN

CT

OK

AZ

NM

SC

AR

NJ

GA

AL

MS

TX

DE

LA

AK

MD

FL

HI

Two seats up

for election

VA

36 Dems. not up

14

21

29 Reps. not up

Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.

Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

THE WASHINGTON POST

2022 Senate map

Democratic-held

Not up for election

Republican-held

N.H.

Wash.

Vt.

Maine

Mont.

Minn.

N.D.

Ore.

Wis.

Idaho

S.D.

N.Y.

Mich.

Wyo.

Pa.

Iowa

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

Ill.

Utah

Mass.

Ind.

Colo.

W.Va.

Calif.

Kan.

Mo.

R.I.

Ky.

N.C.

Conn.

Tenn.

Okla.

Ariz.

S.C.

N.M.

N.J.

Ark.

Ala.

Ga.

Del.

Texas

Md.

La.

Va.

Fla.

Miss.

Alaska

Hawaii

Two seats up

for election

50

36 Dems. not up

14

21

29 Reps. not up

Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.

Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

THE WASHINGTON POST

2022 Senate map

Democratic-held

Republican-held

Not up for election

N.H.

Wash.

Vt.

Maine

Mont.

N.D.

Minn.

Ore.

Idaho

N.Y.

Wis.

S.D.

Mich.

Wyo.

Pa.

Iowa

Mass.

Neb.

Nev.

Ohio

R.I.

Ind.

Ill.

Utah

Conn.

Colo.

W.Va.

Calif.

Va.

N.J.

Kan.

Mo.

Ky.

Del.

N.C.

Md.

Tenn.

Ariz.

Okla.

Ark.

S.C.

N.M.

Ala.

Ga.

Miss.

Tex.

La.

Fla.

Alaska

Two seats up

for election

Hawaii

50

36 Dems. not up for election

14

21

29 Reps. not up for election

Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.

Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

THE WASHINGTON POST

Georgia

An especially competitive race is shaping up in Georgia, where Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) will face former University of Georgia and National Football League running back Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee. Warnock never truly stopped campaigning after surprisingly winning in a runoff election in January 2021, fundraising aggressively to build a staggering $25.6 million cash on hand by the end of March. Walker has high name recognition but is untested as a candidate and faces allegations of domestic abuse. Polls show the two men tied in hypothetical matchups.

Arizona

Arizona is in the spotlight once again as Sen. Mark Kelly (D) hopes to win his first full term in the Senate. Kelly has relatively high job approval and has built his own campaign operation that many credit for helping Biden carry the state in 2020. But the race remains competitive, even after Republicans failed to recruit relatively popular Gov. Doug Ducey to run. With voters giving Democrats low marks on the economy and immigration, two defining issues for Arizonans, whomever Republicans nominate from a deep field of hopefuls is sure to pose a strong challenge to Kelly.

New Hampshire

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Republicans saw Sununu, a moderate who is popular with the state’s voters, as the ideal candidate to flip the seat. Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 — and in a year that so far is trending in Republicans’ favor, she will be vulnerable November.

Nevada

Of the four competitive races with Democratic incumbents, Republicans are the most bullish about Nevada. The GOP has been hammering Democrats for prolonging coronavirus restrictions that hurt Las Vegas’s tourism-based economy. Nevada also has a growing number of Latino and Asian voters, two groups that have shown more openness toward Republican candidates than other minority groups.

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has more money on hand than her likely Republican opponent, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who benefits from Trump’s endorsement. To gain Trump’s backing, Laxalt has repeated the former president’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged and campaigns on fighting election fraud, which could turn off more moderate voters.

Wisconsin

The most vulnerable Republican incumbent is Johnson, whose job approval ratings are lower than Biden’s. Democrats express considerable confidence that they could unseat Johnson and charge that he has prioritized Trump over his own constituents. However, Johnson has proved that he can prevail in tough races, winning reelection in 2016 by nearly 100,000 votes after some had counted him out.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, a state that has quickly become a battleground over the years, Toomey’s retirement has created an open race. Democrats are banking on a Trump-aligned Republican nominee to turn off independent voters in the state. Trump endorsed television host Mehmet Oz over former hedge manager David McCormick in the Republican primary. The two candidates spent millions and sought to win over Trump’s voters. The hard-fought May 17 primary was too close to call, with Oz holding onto a razor-thin lead as thousands of mail-in ballots were still to be counted. Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who has a strong following with working-class voters.

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About this story

Illustrations by Lucy Naland based on photos by Demetrius Freeman, Jabin Botsford, Nitashia Johnson and Craig Hudson, graphics by The Washington Post and additional imagery from iStock.

Story editing by Philip Rucker. Copy editing by Thomas Heleba. Project editing by Jay Wang. Design and development by Tyler Remmel and Jake Crump. Design editing by Madison Walls. Graphics by Chris Alcantara. Graphics editing by Kevin Uhrmacher. Photo editing by Thomas Simonetti. Additional editing by Rachel Van Dongen, Ashlyn Still and Jenna Johnson.