When the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade in June, it put the matter of regulating abortion entirely in the hands of the states. This November, voters will weigh in on ballot initiatives that will decide the future of abortion in five of those states: California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont.
Reproductive rights proponents are hoping to replicate their historic win in Kansas, where a reliably conservative state successfully defeated an anti-abortion ballot initiative in August.
Taken together, this is the highest number of abortion-related referendums up for consideration in a single year, and the most powerful bellwether of the national fallout from the supreme court decision.
Michigan
In Michigan, a battle for abortion rights has centered around whether a 1931 abortion ban, currently blocked, can be enforced. The ballot initiative this November asks voters to protect abortion in the state constitution; if it fails, the 1931 ban could go into effect.
Michiganders are largely in support of abortion rights. Analysis suggests 55% of voters believe abortion should be mostly legal, compared with 39% who believe it should be mostly illegal. Other polling suggests 64% of Michiganders support adding a constitutional protection for abortion through the ballot initiative.
Kentucky
Abortion is already banned in Kentucky through a “trigger ban” from 2019 that came into effect immediately after Roe fell. But with legal challenges seeking to overturn the ban, opponents want to tighten their grip.
The ACLU will argue in court on 15 November, after the midterms are over, that Kentucky’s constitution protects abortion. Anti-abortion advocates are hoping to get ahead of that case with the ballot measure asking Kentucky voters to vote yes on language reading, “nothing in this constitution shall be construed to secure or protect a right to abortion or require the funding of abortion.”
While Kentucky is a squarely red state, polling from 2019 by a group associated with progressive causes shows that 59% of Kentucky voters believe abortion should be legal, including 71% of Democrats, 62% of independents and 45% of Republicans. However, the picture is mixed: a Pew Research poll from 2014 showed 57% of adults in Kentucky believe abortion should be illegal in most cases.
California
The California initiative, brought by abortion rights groups, would expand abortion and other reproductive healthcare access if it passes. It would write abortion protections into the state constitution, along with a right to contraception – something reproductive rights advocates worry could be a future target for conservatives. The wording in the ballot doesn’t prohibit abortion after fetal viability, while current state law does – meaning, if it passes, pregnant people would have expanded options if needed later in pregnancy.
Considering the political makeup of California – where Democrats outnumber Republicans three to one in the state assembly and the senate – most people are expecting a win for abortion rights come November. That’s backed up by a recent poll showing a 71-18 margin for those in favor of the amendment among registered voters in California, including 35% of Republicans.
Vermont
In Vermont, pro-choice advocates are looking to shore up existing abortion protections with a ballot initiative that, if it passes, would add a line to the state’s constitution, reading:
[A]n individual’s right to personal reproductive autonomy is central to the liberty and dignity to determine one’s own life course and shall not be denied or infringed unless justified by a compelling state interest achieved by the least restrictive means
Similar to California’s bill, a win would make anti-abortion laws difficult to pass in the state. Voters have historically rejected anti-abortion ballot initiatives brought in the state.
Experts expect the initiative will pass, in a state so pro-choice that even the Republican governor supports the amendment. But some campaigners still urge caution, in part because voters will be navigating a new, unfamiliar vote-by-mail system.
Montana
Abortion rights in Montana are currently protected under the constitution. Republicans have brought a confusingly worded ballot measure that would bring harsh penalties on doctors in the cases of “born alive infants”, including criminal penalties and $50,000 (£45,032) fines.
Supporters of the referendum say the proposed Born Alive Infant Protection Act is meant to prevent the killing of infants outside the womb after failed abortions. That is already illegal.
Abortion rights proponents worry that passage would have a chilling affect on abortion care. Experts say odds of passage are low, pointing towards analysis showing Montanans favor abortion being mostly legal by a 10% margin.
Associated Press contributed reporting