Vermont primary elections: What to watch for

Note: Voter turnout in the last five primary elections ranged from 8.5 percent in 2008 to 26.5 percent in 2016, according to the Secretary of State's Office. The upper figure was incorrect in an earlier version of this article.

Tuesday is primary day in Vermont — when Vermont voters decide who should carry the Democratic and Republican party banners in the November general election.

If history is any indication, only a sliver of the electorate will decide who wins the mid-August primaries.

In 2014, the most recent midterm primary election year, about 17,000 Republican ballots and fewer than 22,000 Democratic ballots were cast, handing Scott Milne and Peter Shumlin easy gubernatorial primary victories. This year's governor's race is more competitive, with four Democratic candidates and two Republican candidates.

Turnout in the last five primary elections ranged from 8.5 percent to 26.5 percent of registered voters, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

This year's primaries include candidates for statewide office, county prosecutor, sheriff, and legislative seats. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is seeking the Democratic nomination but plans to turn it down to run for re-election as an independent. U.S. Rep. Peter Welch, a Democrat, is defending his nomination and his seat.

If you're not registered to vote, it's not too late. New this year, Vermonters can register on election day.

More:Everything you need to know about the 2018 Vermont primary

Here are two themes to watch in Tuesday's results. 

Will Christine Hallquist make history?

If she wins the Democratic primary, Christine Hallquist will become the nation's first transgender gubernatorial candidate from a major political party.

"Christine is already making history as the first viable transgender candidate to run for governor, and a primary win tomorrow will be a milestone moment for the LGBTQ rights movement," said Mayor Annise Parker, president and CEO of LGBTQ Victory Fund, a national group supporting Hallquist's candidacy. 

Parker predicted that a Hallquist victory would inspire more transgender people to run for office.

Hallquist, the former executive of the Vermont Electric Co-Operative, was formerly known as Dave Hallquist and made a public transition to living as a woman in December 2015.

Hallquist was sure she would lose her job by transitioning, but instead, "Vermont welcomed me with open arms," Hallquist said in an interview. 

Hallquist, of Hyde Park, is one of four candidates on the Democratic primary ballot, along with James Ehlers of Winooski, Brenda Siegel of Newfane and Ethan Sonneborn of Bristol. None of the four candidates has previously held statewide elected office. Some Vermonters have also organized a write-in campaign in support of Democrat John Rodgers, a state senator, of Glover.

More:Vermont Democratic primary for governor: How the four candidates differ on issues

As a candidate, Hallquist speaks more often about rural economic development and climate change, the centerpiece issues of her campaign, than she does about her transgender status.

"I'm a proud and out transgender leader, but I should also tell you, that's all it needs to be," Hallquist said last month on Vermont Public Radio. "You know, people call themselves woman, they call themselves men. I'm a transgender woman. And I know it's different for folks, but you know, if you haven't met someone from Syria, they're different, too." 

More:Governor hopeful: Being transgender has perspective

Hallquist went on to say that she has encountered negative comments on social media and at parades around Vermont.

"People say, 'I'm not voting for that,'" Hallquist said. "But it's like, who cares? And they weren't going to vote for me anyway."

How much will the gun issue hurt Gov. Scott and legislative candidates?

On Facebook, where some gun activists refer to the Gov. Phil Scott as "Phlipper," a gun-rights group is leading an open rebellion against the man they endorsed in the 2016 election.

More:VT Insights: Gov. Scott has more support among Democrats than from his own party

At issue are gun restrictions signed by Gov. Scott this year that ban bump stocks, raise the legal age for purchasing a firearm, require background checks on private gun transfers, and stop the further sale of gun magazines that hold more than 10 or 15 rounds. 

A recent poll by Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS found that two-thirds of respondents favored the new laws, while about 25 percent opposed them.

More:Scott's pivot on guns leaves some supporters behind

Gun Owners of Vermont is encouraging gun owners to support Keith Stern for governor on the Republican ballot or write John Rodgers' name on the Democratic ballot.

The gun issue may also affect down-ballot races.

Gun-rights supporters are also focused on booting any of Chittenden County's six liberal state senators — first by supporting their Democratic primary challengers, and then by voting in November for the handful of Republicans competing for the seats. 

More:Vermont Republican primary for governor: How Scott, Stern differ on issues

More:NRA turns against Gov. Scott over gun control

In a low-turnout primary, the energized gun-rights movement could make the difference. 

Contact April McCullum at 802-660-1863 or amccullum@freepressmedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at @April_McCullum.