Considering no horse has won the Triple Crown since 1978, it is pretty obvious that American Pharoah will be facing a stiff test in the Belmont Stakes on June 6. Hopes are high that he will finally be the one to pull off the elusive quest, but hopes have been high before.
So why have so many talented horses conquered the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, only to come up short in the Belmont? Here are some of the reasons that horses in the last few decades have lost:
Fresh competition: Although some owners have complained about this, there are no rules saying if you want to run in the Belmont, you have to compete in the other two races as well. American Pharoah has now run twice in the past two weeks. Come Belmont day, he will be lining up against horses that are fresher than he is. Case in point: last year's Belmont when California Chrome lost to Tonalist, a horse who skipped the first two legs and had run once in the prior three months.
Skipping the Preakness: As unpopular as that California Chrome's loss was, Smarty Jones losing to Birdstone in 2004 caused even more anger. Although Birdstone ran in the Derby, he skipped the Preakness. When he won the Belmont, his owner, Marylou Whitney, actually apologized on live television. The same thing happened the year before (sans apology), when Empire Maker finished second in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and then bested Funny Cide in the Belmont.
Fierce rivals: Triple Crown hopefuls aren't always bested by horses that came at them fresh. This has happened to two of Bob Baffert's previous trainees. In 1997, Silver Charm lost by three-quarters of a length to Touch Gold, who had missed the Derby but ran a troubled fourth in the Preakness. One year later, Real Quiet lost a heart-breaker of a photo finish to Victory Gallop, who had run second behind him in the other two legs. Going back even further, of course, there is the infamous Sunday Silence/Easy Goer rivalry of 1989.
Bad racing luck: One of the reasons the Belmont is believed to be so hard is because it is 1 ½ miles, and odds are, it is the one and only time these horses will be asked to run that far. However, sometimes the race is over as soon as it begins. In 2002, War Emblem fell to his knees coming out of the starting gate, and that was it. The Baffert trainee was a confirmed front-runner, and when he couldn't go straight to the lead, all hope was lost.
Injury: In 1999, Charismatic took the lead in the Belmont before fading to finish third. Something was clearly amiss though, and his jockey, Chris Antley, quickly dismounted and held up the horse's front left leg. Charismatic had broken it during the race, and his jockey's quick actions likely saved his life.
Not finishing the race: One of the strangest and controversial chapters in the history of the Triple Crown came in 2008 with Big Brown. The horse was rank at the start of the race, and then his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, pulled him up in the stretch, making Big Brown the first Triple Crown hopeful to fail to finish the Belmont. The jockey said after the race that he "had no horse" but no physical issue was ever announced.
Not making the race: Nothing can be taken for granted when it comes to horse racing, not even that a Triple Crown hopeful will start in the Belmont. In 2012, I'll Have Another was scratched the day before the race due to a tendon injury, and he never raced again. In the history of the three races, only two horses, Burgoo King (1932) and Bold Venture (1936) won the Derby and Preakness but skipped the Belmont. However, they both raced well before the Triple Crown had become the Holy Grail of the sport.
The Triple Crown is hard, but it is supposed to be hard. Its value and prestige come from the fact being a good horse isn't enough. There is no question that American Pharoah is a talented runner, and has a legitimate chance at making history in three weeks. Whether he will or not, though, depends on more than just talent. In the end, the Triple Crown comes down to talent, timing and luck.