ESPN’s MVP Poll debuted Wednesday, with Derek Carr holding the top spot, followed closely by Matt Ryan, Tom Brady and Ezekiel Elliott.
Coming in at No. 5 without a first-place vote is the quarterback of the NFL’s best team, Dak Prescott. Yes, Prescott benefits from Elliott and Dallas’ offensive line, but the case can be made that no player has added more total value this season than the Dallas Cowboys’ signal-caller.
Prescott’s MVP case
Let’s begin with the obvious. After Tony Romo went down in the preseason, it looked like another lost season for the Cowboys. As a fourth-round pick, rookie Prescott stepped in seamlessly and has led the Cowboys to an NFL-best 10-1 record, including a single-season franchise-record 10 straight wins heading into Thursday’s matchup with Minnesota.
Although Prescott’s teammates deserve credit for Dallas’ turnaround (more on that later), few quarterbacks have been as efficient and productive as Prescott this season. He leads the NFL in Total QBR, which is now adjusted for opponents faced, and has gained positive expected points added on the second-highest percentage of his plays among NFL QBs.
Prescott’s ability to avoid negative plays (five turnovers, 15 sacks) sets him apart from other quarterbacks, but he isn’t simply a game manager. He makes plays when it matters, ranking third in QBR on third down and leading the league in QBR in the fourth quarter or overtime.
In fact, on his past 11 drives in the fourth quarter or overtime, Prescott has completed 30 of 33 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Washington Redskins. Those completions weren’t coming in blowouts, either, with 29 of the 33 passes coming in one-score games against the Eagles, Steelers, Ravens and Redskins.
Clearly Prescott has been clutch, but how can we measure his total value and compare it to that of others around the league?
Measuring Prescott’s total value
Many will point to Total QBR as an all-encompassing barometer of quarterback success. Total QBR has value, but because it is expressed on a per-play basis, it is not the best measure of a quarterback’s total impact.
There is another metric, however, that might be an even better gauge of a quarterback’s value to his team. QB points added accounts for both efficiency and usage. The number associated with this statistic represents the number of points on the field a quarterback contributes over the course of the season, beyond what would be expected of an average quarterback (one with a QBR of 50) with the same number of plays.
It makes sense that a quarterback who both is efficient and has a high usage rate would receive greater consideration for the NFL MVP award, and such quarterbacks have! Seven of the past eight quarterbacks to win MVP ranked in the top two in that statistic in their award-winning seasons.
How do the 2016 NFL MVP candidates stack up?
Not only does Prescott lead the league in QB points added by more than eight points this season, but he is also on pace to post numbers comparable to some of the best seasons in NFL history.
Since the start of 2006, the first season this statistic is available, only Tom Brady in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (who both started 11-0) added more QB points through 11 games than Prescott has.
What about his teammates?
The clear counterargument to Prescott’s MVP candidacy is that he benefits the Cowboys having the best running back, top offensive line and one of the most explosive wide receivers in the NFL. While that is a valid point, Prescott has been the main catalyst for the league’s most efficient offense.
Elliott deserves credit for his MVP-caliber rookie campaign, but it’s a passing league, and even the most efficient rushing offenses have about one-third the impact of the top passing offenses. Elliott also makes an impact in the passing game, but Prescott, who ranks fourth among quarterbacks in rushing EPA, similarly contributes to Dallas’ rushing success.
A running back will never have the same impact as a quarterback in today’s game, but the question remains whether Prescott’s passing benefits from the threat of Elliott's running. One way to answer this question is to look at whether Prescott benefits from extra defenders in the box and play-action.
About 34 percent of Prescott’s dropbacks have come against a loaded box, which is about 6 percentage points higher than the NFL average. However, Prescott has performed equally well with or without extra defenders in the box. He leads the NFL in Total QBR against an unloaded box and ranks second in QBR without a play-action fake.
What about his offensive line? There’s no doubt that Dallas has an elite run-blocking offensive line, but in terms of pass protection, Prescott has been under duress at a league-average rate. When pressured, he has the second-best QBR and has not turned the ball over in 107 dropbacks.
Finally, Prescott is not simply a product of one elite wide receiver. Dez Bryant has dealt with injuries, and it has been a team effort for Dallas’ receivers, with Bryant, Cole Beasley, Jason Witten and Terrance Williams all contributing.
We would be naïve to ignore Prescott’s teammates, but he clearly has made his own MVP-caliber impact. All of the candidates on the MVP ballot are having superb seasons, but Prescott not only is having one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history, but also, based on his efficiency and total value, might wind up with one of the best single seasons ever.