What's next for President Xi Jinping, the most powerful man to rule China in a generation
BEIJING — Perhaps the grand Beijing Exhibition Center should be renamed the grand Xi Jinping Adoration Palace.
That's because the giant complex has been transformed into a showcase promoting the accomplishments of China's president: “Five years of Brave Endeavor.” His image is plastered on every wall, his words are blasted from large speakers, and a massive TV screen announces that under Xi, the ruling Communist Party "has solved unsolvable problems and carried out impossible tasks.”
The over-the-top display comes as the party convenes Wednesday to select Xi for a second five-year term as its leader, and thus head of the country, cementing his place as the most powerful man to rule this nation of 1.4 billion in at least a generation.
Xi, 64, is guaranteed a second term as party general secretary. But the party's semi-secretive meeting also gives him a chance to strengthen his already powerful position by maneuvering loyalists into other key roles within the leadership.
A compromise candidate when he came to power in 2012, Xi did not get to choose most of his colleagues within the party's top leadership.
After spending the past five years amassing clout, he now has a chance to move allies into key positions and deliver on some of his big promises, such as "economic reform" to spread prosperity to more Chinese, and the "belt and road" initiative — a massive infrastructure project connecting Asia to Europe and beyond.
“He has set a lot of initiatives in motion. Now he has to make good on them,” said Elizabeth Economy, director for Asia studies at the Council of Foreign Relations.
During his tenure, Xi has helped ensure that China's economy grows along with improved standards of living. He built up the nation's military and influence in international affairs, and he has waged a popular campaign against government corruption that has snared many lower-level officials and a few senior ones.
He also has transformed relations with the United States by seeking consensus on trade and currency issues and pledging to President Trump that he would use his influence to try to restrain North Korea's nuclear weapons program. But he also has confronted the U.S. by flexing his military power in Asia.
Xi appears to have popular support among the Chinese people but it is difficult to say for certain since he has cracked down on free expression, imposing greater censorship on the news media and information from the Internet that is critical of the central government. And he has taken a hard line against pro-democracy demonstrators in the former British colony of Hong Kong.
Some political analysts believe Xi’s ambition is to extend his power for another decade by laying the groundwork for either a third term as president, as the party's general secretary overseeing a loyal supporter chosen as president or in a new overarching position as “party chairman.”
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“He will follow what (Russian President Vladimir) Putin did. There is very little chance of him leaving in 2022,” said Hu Xingdou, a political economist at the Beijing Institute of Technology.
Putin has stayed in power for 17 years by arranging with a protege to switch their offices of president and prime minister when constitutional limits forced him to step down as president — a post he could legally assume again after several years.
Observers will be watching for clues about Xi’s intentions during the national congress, which starts Wednesday.
One key indicator will be the fate of Wang Qishan, widely regarded as one of Xi’s closest and most capable allies. Wang, who is 69, should retire from the Politburo Standing Committee, the party's supreme body, according to an informal rule that prevents senior party posts going to anyone over age 67.
If he stays, the move shows Xi has the power to break the rules, and also sets a precedent. Xi will be 69 when his second term ends in 2022.
Another important indicator will be if anyone from the so-called sixth generation of leaders — officials born in the 1960s — is elevated to the standing committee, as Xi and Premier Li Keqiang were five years before gaining their current positions.
Failure to allow anyone to rise would signal an end of the current system of succession, Hu said.
A final indication of how much power Xi has accrued will come in the details of an amendment promised to the party’s constitution.
If his name is added, such as in references to “Xi Jinping Thought” or “Theory,” he will formally be placed on par with the late iconic leaders Mao Zedong, who led the Communist Party to power in 1949, and Deng Xiaoping. They are the only leaders to have eponymous philosophies written into the party’s guiding document.
Other presidents, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, had their thoughts added but without their names attached.
Any addition means Xi is in control of the “party’s intellectual narrative,” said Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese studies at King’s College in London.
Ordinary Chinese seem happy that Xi might stick around longer.
“He is leading China to a better future,” said Wu Pingping, a middle school teacher who brought her son to the exhibition center. “With him at the helm, we can develop stably, faster,” she added.
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