A positive start following news that the US government shutdown had been resolved, for the moment at least, soon faded, leaving European markets a mixed bag by the close.
Sterling rose above $1.40 to a new post-Brexit vote high, partly due to hopes that a successful trade deal can be negotiated, but also thanks to continuing weakness in the dollar. The US currency has been under pressure on worries that the Trump tax cuts would increase the already hefty US national debt. And the dollar has become less attractive as other central banks begin edging up interest rates and gradually removing their long standing stimulus programmes.
And despite a resolution to the government shutdown, the problem has only been postponed until early next month. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said:
Renewed dollar weakness is the revival of yet another familiar friend from 2017. Post-shutdown euphoria has been replaced by a weary acceptance that we will probably have to do this all over again in just over two weeks. Why buy the greenback, when so many other economies can show solid growth without the government disruption so prevalent in the US at the moment?
So with the stronger pound, the FTSE 100 came off its best levels. But Germany’s Dax hovered around record levels, following upbeat consumer confidence figures and signs that a coalition government could be moving closer. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated between positive and negative, but Nasdaq was lifted by the positive Netflix update.
The final scores in Europe showed:
The FTSE 100 finished up 16.39 points or 0.21% at 7731.83
Germany’s Dax rose 0.71% to 13,559.60
France’s Cac closed down 0.12% at 5535.26
Italy’s FTSE MIB fell 0.22% to 23,836.60
Spain’s Ibex ended up 0.24% at 10,609.5
In Greece, the Athens market added 1.62% to 872.00
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 28 points or 0.11%.
Justin Trudeau also made an important point about trade.
He tells Davos that Canada is trying to convince U.S. President Donald Trump that the NAFTA trade agreement was in the interest of the United States as well as other countries.
Trudeau says:
“We’re working very hard to make sure that our neighbour to the south recognizes how good NAFTA is and that it has benefited not just our economy but his economy and the world economy,”
Justin Trudeau now urges business chiefs at Davos to help fight inequality by hiring, promoting and retaining more women.
Getting more women into the workforce isn’t just the right thing to do, or the nice thing to do, it’s the smart thing to do, he tells the World Economic Forum, Studies show it can provide a significant economic boost.
Firms need to address gender pay, and he warns that many firms aren’t doing as well as they think. Just paying men and women the same doesn’t go far enough, unless you also tackle the barriers faced by female workers.
Women do more part-time work, and more unpaid work than men.
Parental leave and childcare policies must be reexamined, Trudeau tells WEF. Firms should implement policies to improve gender balance.
He also reminds us that he introduced Canada’s first gender-balanced cabinet, and the performance of those female ministers has proved the naysayers wrong.
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is now speaking to Davos. He begins by thanking the seven all-female co-chairs for organising this year’s WEF.
He then makes an important announcement: The 10 remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership have concluded a new agreement that will maintain their alliance.
The agreement reached today in Tokyo is the right deal, Trudeau insists. It will create growth, prosperity, and middle class jobs in Canada today and for generations.
This is significant, as Donald Trump pulled the US out of the TPP.
In an hour’s time, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau will give a special address to the World Economic Forum.
As a liberal, feminist leader, Trudeau is a Davos favourite. But that shouldn’t mean he gets a free pass.
Jamie Drummond, executive director of the development group One, says that Trudeau isn’t actually delivering on pledges to make the world a better place.
As Drummond puts it:
“It’s so exasperating that prime minister Justin Trudeau will make another great speech today while the facts point in a shocking direction.
Smart aid rates under Trudeau are lower than under his conservative predecessor Stephen Harper, the money he loudly promised would be new to fight aids, TB and malaria was in fact not new, and his feminist foreign policy is not backed by new funds.
This can and must change now. Not in 2020, or some vague theoretical far-off point after the next election.
Drummond urges WEF delegates to put Trudeau under pressure to deliver.
This week in Davos he must be asked when and by specifically how much he will increase funding for girls education and women’s economic empowerment; and please, he must do it this year.
If we want him be a great leader on these issues, we must withhold praise until we see the quality of his action not just his delightful adverbs.
Trust Trudeau - but verify. And if Davos doesn’t pressure leaders like Trudeau to be the best they can be, or hold them accountable, this gathering is a self-defeating backslapping waste of time the world doesn’t have.”
The Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is among the world leaders who have lined up to get to Davos, reports Helena Smith from Athens:
Tsipras, who arrived only hours after Athens wrapped up a third bailout compliance review – edging ever closer to ending dependence on international bailout loans when the programme expires this summer - is meeting investors also gathered in Davos.
The leftist–led government, in an about–turn of its previous antagonism, is now keen to attract foreign capital as it prepares the country’s return to capital markets. This afternoon’s meeting is much in the vein of luring investors to fund projects in Greece with an eye to slashing unemployment – at 21% still the highest in the EU and by far the nation’s biggest social ill.
Monday’s eurogroup meeting saw euro area finance ministers agreeing to disburse €6.7bn to the debt -stricken nation in two instalments. The first chunk of €5.7bn will be released in February, once outstanding reforms are implemented, to cover debt servicing needs, arrears and creation of a cash buffer that will support Greece’s return to markets.
Talks on debt relief are expected to begin soon – along with a fourth compliance review which included 88 creditor-mandates reforms being taken by June.
Sounding a note of optimism, EU Financial Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said the single currency bloc should prepare for “a successful conclusion, which means Greece being back as a normal member of the eurozone and the final signal – the end of the Greek crisis.”
Eurozone consumer confidence rose from 0.5 points in December to 1.3 points in January, according to the European Commission. This was well above forecasts of a figure of 0.6.
In the wide European Union, confidence jumped 1 point to 0.4 points.
ING economist Bert Colijn said:
With inflation still low, job growth surprising on the upside, house prices increasing and growth forecasts adjusted upwards, there is a lot to like for consumers and that’s evident. The current mood among consumers is nothing short of ecstatic and current levels of confidence are generally associated with further acceleration in household consumption growth. Uncertainty about possible Eurozone reform, Italian elections and the success of the German coalition negotiations clearly take a backseat to improved economic factors.
Over the past few months, consumer confidence improved most notably because of a much more positive view on the general economic situation, modest improvements in assessments of the financial situation and increased amounts of current and expected major purchases. This indicates that optimism and stronger consumption are going hand in hand, spurring the household consumption component of GDP growth. While unemployment expectations have become slightly less favourable over the last months of 2017, this is actually at odds with businesses indicating that hiring expectations remain very high.
With such a favourable outlook, it could well be that the record for consumer confidence could be breached a few more times in 2018. This, in turn, confirms the rosy short-term picture for Eurozone growth.
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