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NCAA Basketball Tournament: Arizona Is The One Team That Can Beat Undefeated Kentucky

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This article is more than 9 years old.

When it comes to the 2015 NCAA Tournament, keep looking out for the Wildcats.

We’re not talking about the NBA’s 31st team -- the undefeated and seemingly unbeatable Kentucky Wildcats, who have rolled right into the Sweet 16 and figure to continue their relentless march to Indianapolis for the Final Four.

Look out for the Arizona Wildcats, especially if they can win their next two games and then meet up with Kentucky in Indy. When the Big Dance started, a few NBA scouts were salivating over a potential 'Cat fight.

“They’re the one team that could take out Kentucky,’’ one veteran NBA scout who watched the ‘Cats win the Pac-12 tournament told me. “They should have gotten the No. 1 seed in the West, not Wisconsin. They have the kind of team that can beat Kentucky.’’

No, it won't be easy. Kentucky has upwards of eight NBA prospects, headed by potential No. 1 overall pick Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein, who could go in the top seven when the NBA has its draft in June. Several scouts have rated Towns above Duke’s Jahlil Okafor in recent weeks, mainly citing the fact that Towns is a better all-around player. Okafor has a more polished post game, but Towns is a better athlete, with a bigger motor, has more range on his shot and is rated a better defender.

John Calipari has what amounts to two elite squads on his hands -- Towns averaged only 20.8 minutes a game this season, and played only 19 against Arkansas in Kentucky’s cake-walk in the SEC Tournament title game. In the NCAA's, the Wildcats certainly haven't looked invincible in cruising past Hampton and Cincinnati. Towns has gotten more playing time than usual _ 25 minutes vs. Hampton and 23 vs. Cincinnati _ but it's not like he's suddenly an iron man. That, according to scouts, is what makes them so difficult to scout. Nobody is ever on the court for very long.

But as its breezed in the Big Dance, with impressive showings against Texas Southern and Ohio State, Arizona has demonstrated that it has the kind of team that can prevent the other Wildcats from becoming the first team since Indiana in 1976 to finish the season with the championship and a perfect record.

In T.J. McConnell, Arizona has a veteran point guard who wouldn't get rattled against a ball-hawking defense like Kentucky’s. McConnell, a four-year player, was in the running for the Pac-12 Player of the Year. In Sunday's win against Ohio State that put them in the Sweet 16, he played a terrific all-around game, with 19 points, six rebounds, six assists, five steals and only one turnover in playing all but one minute. Earlier this season, when they asked McConnell what he wanted to be in the future, he answered, “Stanley Johnson’s agent.’’

Stanley Johnson, Arizona’s celebrated freshman, has "NBA starter'' written all over him, even if he averaged only 14.1 points this season. He missed 11 of 12 shots against Ohio State, but his abysmal shooting went under the radar as the Buckeyes' own celebrated freshman, D'Angelo Russell, missed 16 of 19 shots.

“He’s a man-child,’’ said the NBA scout about Johnson. “He’s 6-6 or 6-7, 245 pounds, and he’s built like a linebacker. But here’s the deal: He’s got a lot of skills. He can shoot it and he can handle the ball. He rebounds. If he comes out, he’s going to be a top lottery pick.''

Some scouts have Johnson rated in the top five among 2015 draft prospects. You need those kinds of talented players when matching up against Kentucky’s one-and-doners, who chose not to cut down the nets in Nashville after their SEC tourney championship against Arkansas because they have bigger plans.

What else does Arizona have, as far as how the pros see it, that gives them a better chance to beat Kentucky than the two other remaining No. 1 seeds, Duke and Wisconsin? After Okafor, Duke has only two other pro prospects in Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. Wisconsin has a certain first-rounder in Frank Kaminsky, but only one other player who might make an NBA team, Sam Dekker. Villanova, meanwhile, the other No. 1 seed that was outmatched in its loss to N.C. State, didn’t have one player the pros are honing in on for the June draft.

Arizona can’t match Kentucky for pro prospects, but its starting five might be even better than Calipari's opening five.  Coach Sean Miller also has the kind of big and athletic wing players that teams need to match up with Kentucky’s perimeter studs. They have a defensive stopper on the wing in 6-7 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who has a 7-footer’s wingspan and regularly shuts down the best scorers in the Pac-12. The best opponents averaged only 12 ppg on 35% shooting when they met up with Arizona this season. They’ve also been bolstered by the return of Brandon Ashley, who was injured last season as they made their run to the Elite Eight. His presence helped them field what many coaches consider the third toughest defense in college hoops, after Kentucky and Virginia.

With Kentucky able to go at teams with more 7-footers than most NBA teams have, you need to have a good big man if you expect to stop this run to perfection. Arizona has a seasoned 7-footer in Kaleb Tarczewski, who would be matched against Wisconsin's Kaminsky if both teams win their next games. He doesn’t put up big numbers and has been a disappointment for some, but he can definitely help if the Wildcats meet up with Towns and Cauley-Stein, whose motor and defense has been compared to Chicago’s Joakim Noah.

“It’s not the best-of-five,’’ Calipari said on the eve of the tournament. “Lose one and you’re out.’’

It’ll take a good coach with a solid game-plan to beat Kentucky, and Arizona has one of the best in the business in Miller, 46, who has taken his team to three Elite Eights. Asked before one game in the tournament what a team has to have to succeed in March Madness, he simply said, “Nastiness is required.’’

“He’s a really good coach,’’ said the pro scout. “His kids respond to his coaching and he knows what he’s doing. He’s not getting out-coached by anybody.’’

Miller will have to be on top of his game if he sees Kentucky take the court in Indianapolis during Final Four weekend. But here's what he has going for him: A collection of Wildcats who on one night just might be better than the Kentucky variety.

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